Home Office settlement proposals threaten to keep 90,000 children in poverty

New independent analysis commissioned by the No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) Partnership and carried out by Landman Economics and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) estimates that the Home Office’s proposed ‘earned settlement’ rules could prolong poverty for up to 90,000 children of migrant workers by 2029. 

Our findings suggest that the Government’s plan to extend settlement routes would prolong child poverty among working migrant families already living in the UK, particularly for the children of senior care workers. This estimate only includes children whose parents are currently on the Skilled Worker route, including the Health and Care visa. There are likely to be significantly more children affected by the changes on other settlement routes, including those on family routes. 

The research looked at the impact on children whose parents are on the Skilled Worker route. It models the effect of extending the current five-year pathway to settlement to 10 years or more, which the Government is expected to bring in later this year.  

We found that: 

• By dropping these proposals, the Government could lift 90,000 children out of poverty by 2029, including children expected to be born during this period. 

• If the route to settlement is extended to 10 years as currently proposed, half of all children with parents on work routes could be living in poverty by 2029 - around 130,000 children in total. 

• Separate analysis from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found that more than 300,000 children currently living in the UK could be pushed onto a longer route to settlement under the new Home Office policy. 

The Home Secretary’s proposals clearly conflict with the Government’s Child Poverty Strategy published last year. This aims to “give every child the chance of a positive childhood” and ensure they are supported to grow into adults who can thrive and contribute to society. 

Analysis shows that the proportion of children in working migrant families living in relative poverty could fall by almost 30 percentage points by 2029 if the Government keeps the current five-year route to settlement. 

Praxis is a founding partner of the No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) Partnership, along with Citizens UK and Migration Exchange. The Partnership aims to bring together organisations working to address the detrimental impacts of NRPF restrictions on families and communities.  

Notes  

• The definition of poverty used in this analysis is relative poverty after housing costs.  

• The analysis did not factor in that a minority of migrants may leave the UK before 2029. It is impossible to get an accurate estimate of how many may do so. The Home Office has previously estimated that 67% of those on the skilled worker route are likely to remain in the UK, but the proportion of families with children who remain is likely to be higher. Applying this rate to our estimate produces a range of 60,000-90,000 children whose parents are on the skilled worker route to settlement who could be locked in poverty by the extension of the settlement route.  

• The Government’s “earned settlement” policy proposals involve, amongst other things, extending the standard qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain (also known as settlement, or settled status) from five to 10 years as standard, and introducing new criteria that could shorten or lengthen settlement processes, leaving some facing a wait of as much as 30 years. For further details of the reforms, please see this briefing.  

Methodology 

The analysis first calculated the number of child dependants on the Skilled Worker route at the end of 2024, using data from the Home Office’s Migrant Journey dataset. Only migrants who began their journey from 2021 onwards are included, on the basis that it is this cohort who will not be able to apply for settlement before the new rule changes are introduced. Researchers assumed that between 67 and 100 per cent of these Skilled Worker families will settle in the UK. 

Researchers then estimated the share of these children who are in household poverty, are not in receipt of benefits, and would be pulled out of poverty if they had access to public funds. This is calculated using the Family Resources Survey. Because it is not possible to isolate families on the Skilled Worker route with this dataset, researchers used a proxy cohort based on country of birth and occupation skill level. 

The analysis models child poverty in the 2029-30 tax year. The timescale of 2029 was used because this marks the point at which migrant worker families who arrived in the UK before the end of 2024 would be able to access public funds after securing settlement under existing rules, but would still be ineligible for public funds under the earned settlement proposals. The researchers also modelled the impact of additional children who will be born to migrant families between 2024 and 2029. 

The full methodology behind this analysis can be downloaded as a PDF here.